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Part of 10 Chapters
Chapter 2
Life Tables and Probabilistic Modeling
#Life Table#Mortality Rate (qx)#Survival Probability (px)#Life Expectancy
Life Tables: Mapping Human Longevity
A life table (also known as a mortality table) is the primary tool used by life actuaries. It tracks a hypothetical cohort of people from birth until death, providing a statistical snapshot of a population’s mortality.
1. Key Columns in a Life Table
- : The number of people alive at age .
- : The number of people who die between age and .
- : The probability that a person aged will die before reaching .
2. Mortality Rates vs. Age
Mortality typically follows a “U-shape” or a “J-shape”—relatively high at birth, very low during youth, and exponentially increasing at older ages.
Sample Life Table Data
| Age (x) | Alive (lx) | Deaths (dx) | Mortality Rate (qx) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100,000 | 580 | 0.0058 |
| 20 | 99,120 | 85 | 0.0009 |
| 40 | 98,200 | 210 | 0.0021 |
| 60 | 94,500 | 950 | 0.0101 |
| 80 | 65,000 | 4,200 | 0.0646 |
3. Stochastic Nature of Life
Actuaries don’t predict when a specific individual will die. Instead, they model the stochastic process of a large group to ensure that the insurance pool remains solvent.
💡 Professor’s Tip
Mortality is not static. Actuaries must account for “Mortality Improvement”—the trend that people are living longer due to medical advances and better lifestyles.