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Chapter 2

Life Tables and Probabilistic Modeling

#Life Table#Mortality Rate (qx)#Survival Probability (px)#Life Expectancy

Life Tables: Mapping Human Longevity

A life table (also known as a mortality table) is the primary tool used by life actuaries. It tracks a hypothetical cohort of people from birth until death, providing a statistical snapshot of a population’s mortality.

1. Key Columns in a Life Table

  • lxl_x: The number of people alive at age xx.
  • dxd_x: The number of people who die between age xx and x+1x+1.
  • qxq_x: The probability that a person aged xx will die before reaching x+1x+1.

2. Mortality Rates vs. Age

Mortality typically follows a “U-shape” or a “J-shape”—relatively high at birth, very low during youth, and exponentially increasing at older ages.

Sample Life Table Data

Age (x)Alive (lx)Deaths (dx)Mortality Rate (qx)
0100,0005800.0058
2099,120850.0009
4098,2002100.0021
6094,5009500.0101
8065,0004,2000.0646

3. Stochastic Nature of Life

Actuaries don’t predict when a specific individual will die. Instead, they model the stochastic process of a large group to ensure that the insurance pool remains solvent.


💡 Professor’s Tip

Mortality is not static. Actuaries must account for “Mortality Improvement”—the trend that people are living longer due to medical advances and better lifestyles.

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